Senate
2026 Senate forecast.
Our official predictions and probabilities for the 2026 senate elections.
Model built and maintained by gamerdoglover.
Ratings
The 2026 Senate map.
-- simulations. -- races below 75 percent certainty.
Muted states do not hold regular 2026 Senate contests.
Path to control
Common winning states in control simulations.
Model confidence
Early forecast, wide error bands.
The 40,000 simulations make the model internally stable, but May 2026 data is still thin. Probabilities should be read as today's best estimate from current polling, candidate, finance, and fundamentals inputs, not as November-level certainty.