{
  "source": {
    "title": "State-by-State Polling Biases",
    "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_jm2C7nYv4MRVhPWf-_4Q1UCJzDU_liIJAhG7pUT-BQ/edit?usp=sharing",
    "format": "User-provided PDF export",
    "importedAt": "2026-10-30",
    "sha256": "77c9e999622335123472a0cbcc003a3b0e44d6fd178dc24708979fbb2d059301",
    "scope": "Historical Senate polling evidence, 2014–2024, and final 2026 state priors",
    "biasDefinition": "Weighted polling D−R margin minus actual D−R margin. Positive values overstate Democrats; negative values overstate Republicans."
  },
  "states": [
    {
      "state": "Alabama",
      "abbr": "AL",
      "division": "East South Central",
      "rawBias": 8.2456,
      "divisionPrior": 3.1474,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.1469,
      "raceCount": 2,
      "pollCount": 3,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 4.7164,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "2020 +9.2 (2 polls); 2022 +6.7 (1 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -11.145,
          "actualMargin": -20.359,
          "bias": 9.214,
          "cappedBias": 9.214,
          "weight": 0.0894
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 1,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -29.0,
          "actualMargin": -35.74,
          "bias": 6.74,
          "cappedBias": 6.74,
          "weight": 0.0575
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Alaska",
      "abbr": "AK",
      "division": "Pacific",
      "rawBias": 0.741,
      "divisionPrior": -0.8613,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.1414,
      "raceCount": 1,
      "pollCount": 4,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": -0.4268,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "2014 +0.7 (4 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 4,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 4,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -1.388,
          "actualMargin": -2.13,
          "bias": 0.741,
          "cappedBias": 0.741,
          "weight": 0.1414
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Arizona",
      "abbr": "AZ",
      "division": "Mountain",
      "rawBias": -0.9058,
      "divisionPrior": -0.2857,
      "evidenceWeight": 3.2397,
      "raceCount": 5,
      "pollCount": 62,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": -0.8407,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2016 +2.7 (5 polls); 2018 -3.1 (13 polls); 2020 +3.7 (16 polls); 2022 -3.9 (12 polls); 2024 +0.7 (16 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 5,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 5,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -10.237,
          "actualMargin": -12.981,
          "bias": 2.744,
          "cappedBias": 2.744,
          "weight": 0.1897
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 13,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 13,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -0.711,
          "actualMargin": 2.344,
          "bias": -3.055,
          "cappedBias": -3.055,
          "weight": 0.7
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 16,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 16,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 6.076,
          "actualMargin": 2.346,
          "bias": 3.73,
          "cappedBias": 3.73,
          "weight": 0.55
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 12,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 12,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 0.987,
          "actualMargin": 4.88,
          "bias": -3.893,
          "cappedBias": -3.893,
          "weight": 1.0
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 16,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 16,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 3.066,
          "actualMargin": 2.41,
          "bias": 0.656,
          "cappedBias": 0.656,
          "weight": 0.8
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Arkansas",
      "abbr": "AR",
      "division": "West South Central",
      "rawBias": 9.1735,
      "divisionPrior": 1.8334,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.2747,
      "raceCount": 2,
      "pollCount": 9,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 5.1654,
      "confidence": "Low",
      "evidence": "2014 +10.0 (7 polls); 2022 +8.2 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 7,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 7,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -7.048,
          "actualMargin": -17.067,
          "bias": 10.019,
          "cappedBias": 10.019,
          "weight": 0.1497
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -26.479,
          "actualMargin": -34.64,
          "bias": 8.161,
          "cappedBias": 8.161,
          "weight": 0.125
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "California",
      "abbr": "CA",
      "division": "Pacific",
      "rawBias": 3.5868,
      "divisionPrior": -0.8613,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.3705,
      "raceCount": 2,
      "pollCount": 4,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 1.4899,
      "confidence": "Low",
      "evidence": "2022 +3.4 (2 polls); 2024 +3.7 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 25.222,
          "actualMargin": 21.78,
          "bias": 3.442,
          "cappedBias": 3.442,
          "weight": 0.1625
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 0,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 21.2,
          "actualMargin": 17.5,
          "bias": 3.7,
          "cappedBias": 3.7,
          "weight": 0.208
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Colorado",
      "abbr": "CO",
      "division": "Mountain",
      "rawBias": 0.0316,
      "divisionPrior": -0.2857,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.6386,
      "raceCount": 3,
      "pollCount": 20,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": -0.0867,
      "confidence": "Medium",
      "evidence": "2014 -0.9 (12 polls); 2016 +1.4 (6 polls); 2020 -0.8 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 12,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 12,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -2.877,
          "actualMargin": -1.944,
          "bias": -0.933,
          "cappedBias": -0.933,
          "weight": 0.2
        },
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 6,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 6,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 7.035,
          "actualMargin": 5.665,
          "bias": 1.37,
          "cappedBias": 1.37,
          "weight": 0.2598
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 0,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 8.487,
          "actualMargin": 9.321,
          "bias": -0.834,
          "cappedBias": -0.834,
          "weight": 0.1788
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Connecticut",
      "abbr": "CT",
      "division": "New England",
      "rawBias": 0.4343,
      "divisionPrior": -0.4158,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.7429,
      "raceCount": 2,
      "pollCount": 5,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": 0.1466,
      "confidence": "Medium",
      "evidence": "2018 +1.9 (3 polls); 2022 -0.8 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 3,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 19.32,
          "actualMargin": 17.447,
          "bias": 1.873,
          "cappedBias": 1.873,
          "weight": 0.3429
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 14.111,
          "actualMargin": 14.91,
          "bias": -0.799,
          "cappedBias": -0.799,
          "weight": 0.4
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Delaware",
      "abbr": "DE",
      "division": "South Atlantic",
      "rawBias": 6.5967,
      "divisionPrior": 2.1393,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.1269,
      "raceCount": 2,
      "pollCount": 4,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 3.3761,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "2014 +4.7 (3 polls); 2020 +8.5 (1 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 18.351,
          "actualMargin": 13.601,
          "bias": 4.749,
          "cappedBias": 4.749,
          "weight": 0.0637
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 1,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 0,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 30.0,
          "actualMargin": 21.541,
          "bias": 8.459,
          "cappedBias": 8.459,
          "weight": 0.0632
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Florida",
      "abbr": "FL",
      "division": "South Atlantic",
      "rawBias": 5.4662,
      "divisionPrior": 2.1393,
      "evidenceWeight": 2.1453,
      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 51,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 5.0222,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2016 +3.4 (17 polls); 2018 +1.9 (24 polls); 2022 +7.5 (6 polls); 2024 +9.4 (4 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 17,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 17,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -4.311,
          "actualMargin": -7.666,
          "bias": 3.355,
          "cappedBias": 3.355,
          "weight": 0.3
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 24,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 24,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 1.729,
          "actualMargin": -0.123,
          "bias": 1.852,
          "cappedBias": 1.852,
          "weight": 0.7
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 6,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 6,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -8.919,
          "actualMargin": -16.41,
          "bias": 7.491,
          "cappedBias": 7.491,
          "weight": 0.6928
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 4,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 4,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -3.423,
          "actualMargin": -12.78,
          "bias": 9.357,
          "cappedBias": 9.357,
          "weight": 0.4525
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Georgia",
      "abbr": "GA",
      "division": "South Atlantic",
      "rawBias": -1.1739,
      "divisionPrior": 2.1393,
      "evidenceWeight": 1.4245,
      "raceCount": 3,
      "pollCount": 57,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": -0.4762,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2014 +6.1 (31 polls); 2016 +3.1 (7 polls); 2022 -3.6 (19 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 31,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 31,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -1.629,
          "actualMargin": -7.683,
          "bias": 6.053,
          "cappedBias": 6.053,
          "weight": 0.2
        },
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 7,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 7,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -10.6,
          "actualMargin": -13.751,
          "bias": 3.15,
          "cappedBias": 3.15,
          "weight": 0.2245
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 19,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 19,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -0.79,
          "actualMargin": 2.8,
          "bias": -3.59,
          "cappedBias": -3.59,
          "weight": 1.0
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Hawaii",
      "abbr": "HI",
      "division": "Pacific",
      "rawBias": 0.078,
      "divisionPrior": -0.8613,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.025,
      "raceCount": 1,
      "pollCount": 2,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": -0.8034,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "2014 +0.1 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 40.332,
          "actualMargin": 40.254,
          "bias": 0.078,
          "cappedBias": 0.078,
          "weight": 0.025
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Idaho",
      "abbr": "ID",
      "division": "Mountain",
      "rawBias": 2.318,
      "divisionPrior": -0.2857,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.0199,
      "raceCount": 1,
      "pollCount": 3,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": -0.1561,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "2014 +2.3 (3 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -28.339,
          "actualMargin": -30.657,
          "bias": 2.318,
          "cappedBias": 2.318,
          "weight": 0.0199
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Illinois",
      "abbr": "IL",
      "division": "East North Central",
      "rawBias": -2.5588,
      "divisionPrior": 1.5223,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.5065,
      "raceCount": 3,
      "pollCount": 9,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": -0.9475,
      "confidence": "Low",
      "evidence": "2014 +0.3 (5 polls); 2016 -1.8 (2 polls); 2022 -4.3 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 5,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 5,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 11.108,
          "actualMargin": 10.854,
          "bias": 0.255,
          "cappedBias": 0.255,
          "weight": 0.1265
        },
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 13.307,
          "actualMargin": 15.081,
          "bias": -1.774,
          "cappedBias": -1.774,
          "weight": 0.12
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 11.03,
          "actualMargin": 15.32,
          "bias": -4.29,
          "cappedBias": -4.29,
          "weight": 0.26
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Indiana",
      "abbr": "IN",
      "division": "East North Central",
      "rawBias": 7.1007,
      "divisionPrior": 1.5223,
      "evidenceWeight": 1.0592,
      "raceCount": 3,
      "pollCount": 19,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 5.7743,
      "confidence": "Medium",
      "evidence": "2016 +8.9 (4 polls); 2018 +6.8 (14 polls); 2024 +5.9 (1 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 4,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 4,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -0.772,
          "actualMargin": -9.7,
          "bias": 8.927,
          "cappedBias": 8.927,
          "weight": 0.2121
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 14,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 14,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 0.915,
          "actualMargin": -5.89,
          "bias": 6.806,
          "cappedBias": 6.806,
          "weight": 0.7
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 1,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 0,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -14.0,
          "actualMargin": -19.87,
          "bias": 5.87,
          "cappedBias": 5.87,
          "weight": 0.1471
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Iowa",
      "abbr": "IA",
      "division": "West North Central",
      "rawBias": 4.8159,
      "divisionPrior": 2.3023,
      "evidenceWeight": 1.1745,
      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 31,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 4.264,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2014 +6.7 (14 polls); 2016 +2.5 (4 polls); 2020 +6.5 (10 polls); 2022 +1.5 (3 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 14,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 14,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -1.609,
          "actualMargin": -8.339,
          "bias": 6.73,
          "cappedBias": 6.73,
          "weight": 0.2
        },
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 4,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 4,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -21.91,
          "actualMargin": -24.435,
          "bias": 2.525,
          "cappedBias": 2.525,
          "weight": 0.1061
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 10,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 10,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -0.012,
          "actualMargin": -6.478,
          "bias": 6.467,
          "cappedBias": 6.467,
          "weight": 0.55
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -10.645,
          "actualMargin": -12.17,
          "bias": 1.525,
          "cappedBias": 1.525,
          "weight": 0.3184
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Kansas",
      "abbr": "KS",
      "division": "West North Central",
      "rawBias": 3.3248,
      "divisionPrior": 2.3023,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.3837,
      "raceCount": 3,
      "pollCount": 5,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 2.8517,
      "confidence": "Low",
      "evidence": "2016 -24.1 (2 polls); 2020 +7.4 (2 polls); 2022 +2.0 (1 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -54.085,
          "actualMargin": -29.937,
          "bias": -24.148,
          "cappedBias": -12.0,
          "weight": 0.0488
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -4.0,
          "actualMargin": -11.437,
          "bias": 7.437,
          "cappedBias": 7.437,
          "weight": 0.22
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 1,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -21.0,
          "actualMargin": -22.96,
          "bias": 1.96,
          "cappedBias": 1.96,
          "weight": 0.1149
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Kentucky",
      "abbr": "KY",
      "division": "East South Central",
      "rawBias": 8.4549,
      "divisionPrior": 3.1474,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.4249,
      "raceCount": 3,
      "pollCount": 10,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 6.133,
      "confidence": "Low",
      "evidence": "2014 +9.1 (7 polls); 2016 -1.5 (1 polls); 2020 +10.5 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 7,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 7,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -6.415,
          "actualMargin": -15.467,
          "bias": 9.052,
          "cappedBias": 9.052,
          "weight": 0.1497
        },
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 1,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -16.0,
          "actualMargin": -14.549,
          "bias": -1.451,
          "cappedBias": -1.451,
          "weight": 0.0552
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -9.0,
          "actualMargin": -19.534,
          "bias": 10.534,
          "cappedBias": 10.534,
          "weight": 0.22
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Louisiana",
      "abbr": "LA",
      "division": "West South Central",
      "rawBias": 5.545,
      "divisionPrior": 1.8334,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.2,
      "raceCount": 1,
      "pollCount": 8,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": 3.1132,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "2014 +5.5 (8 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 8,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 8,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -4.335,
          "actualMargin": -9.879,
          "bias": 5.545,
          "cappedBias": 5.545,
          "weight": 0.2
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Maine",
      "abbr": "ME",
      "division": "New England",
      "rawBias": 11.7432,
      "divisionPrior": -0.4158,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.3145,
      "raceCount": 2,
      "pollCount": 7,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 5.5135,
      "confidence": "Low",
      "evidence": "2014 +10.0 (5 polls); 2020 +13.6 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 5,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 5,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -26.229,
          "actualMargin": -36.184,
          "bias": 9.955,
          "cappedBias": 9.955,
          "weight": 0.0395
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 5.123,
          "actualMargin": -8.502,
          "bias": 13.625,
          "cappedBias": 12.0,
          "weight": 0.275
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Maryland",
      "abbr": "MD",
      "division": "South Atlantic",
      "rawBias": -2.3825,
      "divisionPrior": 2.1393,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.4114,
      "raceCount": 3,
      "pollCount": 5,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": -0.3684,
      "confidence": "Low",
      "evidence": "2016 +3.8 (1 polls); 2018 -7.5 (2 polls); 2024 -2.1 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 1,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 0,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 29.0,
          "actualMargin": 25.213,
          "bias": 3.787,
          "cappedBias": 3.787,
          "weight": 0.0345
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 0,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 27.0,
          "actualMargin": 34.549,
          "bias": -7.549,
          "cappedBias": -7.549,
          "weight": 0.0569
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 9.671,
          "actualMargin": 11.8,
          "bias": -2.129,
          "cappedBias": -2.129,
          "weight": 0.32
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Massachusetts",
      "abbr": "MA",
      "division": "New England",
      "rawBias": -0.5256,
      "divisionPrior": -0.4158,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.5089,
      "raceCount": 3,
      "pollCount": 11,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": -0.4824,
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      "evidence": "2014 -4.8 (6 polls); 2018 +0.2 (3 polls); 2024 +0.5 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 6,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 6,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 17.958,
          "actualMargin": 22.773,
          "bias": -4.815,
          "cappedBias": -4.815,
          "weight": 0.0866
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 3,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 24.354,
          "actualMargin": 24.165,
          "bias": 0.19,
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          "weight": 0.2143
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 20.333,
          "actualMargin": 19.81,
          "bias": 0.523,
          "cappedBias": 0.523,
          "weight": 0.208
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      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Michigan",
      "abbr": "MI",
      "division": "East North Central",
      "rawBias": 2.823,
      "divisionPrior": 1.5223,
      "evidenceWeight": 2.21,
      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 67,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 2.6538,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2014 -0.9 (9 polls); 2018 +2.3 (10 polls); 2020 +5.5 (22 polls); 2024 +2.2 (26 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 9,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 9,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 12.335,
          "actualMargin": 13.285,
          "bias": -0.95,
          "cappedBias": -0.95,
          "weight": 0.16
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 10,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 10,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 8.8,
          "actualMargin": 6.506,
          "bias": 2.294,
          "cappedBias": 2.294,
          "weight": 0.7
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        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 22,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 22,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 7.23,
          "actualMargin": 1.685,
          "bias": 5.545,
          "cappedBias": 5.545,
          "weight": 0.55
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 26,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 26,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 2.509,
          "actualMargin": 0.34,
          "bias": 2.169,
          "cappedBias": 2.169,
          "weight": 0.8
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Minnesota",
      "abbr": "MN",
      "division": "West North Central",
      "rawBias": -2.3333,
      "divisionPrior": 2.3023,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.9024,
      "raceCount": 3,
      "pollCount": 11,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": -1.0909,
      "confidence": "Medium",
      "evidence": "2014 +0.5 (4 polls); 2020 -2.5 (3 polls); 2024 -2.9 (4 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 4,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 4,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 10.761,
          "actualMargin": 10.244,
          "bias": 0.517,
          "cappedBias": 0.517,
          "weight": 0.1131
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 3,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 2.691,
          "actualMargin": 5.238,
          "bias": -2.548,
          "cappedBias": -2.548,
          "weight": 0.3368
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 4,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 4,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 12.814,
          "actualMargin": 15.7,
          "bias": -2.886,
          "cappedBias": -2.886,
          "weight": 0.4525
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Mississippi",
      "abbr": "MS",
      "division": "East South Central",
      "rawBias": 2.087,
      "divisionPrior": 3.1474,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.0325,
      "raceCount": 1,
      "pollCount": 2,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": 3.0639,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "2014 +2.1 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -19.918,
          "actualMargin": -22.005,
          "bias": 2.087,
          "cappedBias": 2.087,
          "weight": 0.0325
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Missouri",
      "abbr": "MO",
      "division": "West North Central",
      "rawBias": 3.3363,
      "divisionPrior": 2.3023,
      "evidenceWeight": 1.5657,
      "raceCount": 3,
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      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 3.1561,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2016 +1.3 (8 polls); 2018 +4.9 (9 polls); 2022 +2.5 (4 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 8,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 8,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -1.517,
          "actualMargin": -2.792,
          "bias": 1.275,
          "cappedBias": 1.275,
          "weight": 0.3
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 9,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 9,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -0.899,
          "actualMargin": -5.814,
          "bias": 4.915,
          "cappedBias": 4.915,
          "weight": 0.7
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 4,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 4,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -10.774,
          "actualMargin": -13.25,
          "bias": 2.476,
          "cappedBias": 2.476,
          "weight": 0.5657
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Montana",
      "abbr": "MT",
      "division": "Mountain",
      "rawBias": 2.0242,
      "divisionPrior": -0.2857,
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      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 12,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": 1.4784,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2014 -0.2 (3 polls); 2018 +1.2 (4 polls); 2020 +9.1 (3 polls); 2024 -1.3 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -17.928,
          "actualMargin": -17.718,
          "bias": -0.21,
          "cappedBias": -0.21,
          "weight": 0.0637
        },
        {
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          "polls": 4,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 4,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 4.72,
          "actualMargin": 3.551,
          "bias": 1.168,
          "cappedBias": 1.168,
          "weight": 0.495
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 3,
          "window": "21d",
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          "actualMargin": -10.024,
          "bias": 9.112,
          "cappedBias": 9.112,
          "weight": 0.2694
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
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          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
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          "pollMargin": -8.474,
          "actualMargin": -7.14,
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          "cappedBias": -1.334,
          "weight": 0.4
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      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Nebraska",
      "abbr": "NE",
      "division": "West North Central",
      "rawBias": 4.204,
      "divisionPrior": 2.3023,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.0163,
      "raceCount": 1,
      "pollCount": 2,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": 2.3805,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "2014 +4.2 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -28.648,
          "actualMargin": -32.852,
          "bias": 4.204,
          "cappedBias": 4.204,
          "weight": 0.0163
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      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Nevada",
      "abbr": "NV",
      "division": "Mountain",
      "rawBias": -1.5474,
      "divisionPrior": -0.2857,
      "evidenceWeight": 2.7548,
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      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": -1.3945,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2016 -1.1 (9 polls); 2018 -4.2 (7 polls); 2022 -3.5 (13 polls); 2024 +2.9 (16 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 9,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 9,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 1.361,
          "actualMargin": 2.429,
          "bias": -1.067,
          "cappedBias": -1.067,
          "weight": 0.3
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
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          "pollsFinal21Days": 7,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 0.836,
          "actualMargin": 5.027,
          "bias": -4.191,
          "cappedBias": -4.191,
          "weight": 0.6548
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 13,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 13,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -2.75,
          "actualMargin": 0.77,
          "bias": -3.52,
          "cappedBias": -3.52,
          "weight": 1.0
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 16,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 16,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 4.552,
          "actualMargin": 1.65,
          "bias": 2.902,
          "cappedBias": 2.902,
          "weight": 0.8
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      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "New Hampshire",
      "abbr": "NH",
      "division": "New England",
      "rawBias": -4.4251,
      "divisionPrior": -0.4158,
      "evidenceWeight": 1.7694,
      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 41,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": -3.7942,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2014 -1.5 (15 polls); 2016 -1.4 (13 polls); 2020 -0.6 (3 polls); 2022 -7.0 (10 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 15,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 15,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 1.705,
          "actualMargin": 3.244,
          "bias": -1.539,
          "cappedBias": -1.539,
          "weight": 0.2
        },
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 13,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 13,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -1.263,
          "actualMargin": 0.138,
          "bias": -1.4,
          "cappedBias": -1.4,
          "weight": 0.3
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 3,
          "window": "21d",
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          "actualMargin": 15.649,
          "bias": -0.553,
          "cappedBias": -0.553,
          "weight": 0.2694
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 10,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 10,
          "window": "21d",
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          "actualMargin": 9.15,
          "bias": -6.953,
          "cappedBias": -6.953,
          "weight": 1.0
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      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "New Jersey",
      "abbr": "NJ",
      "division": "Middle Atlantic",
      "rawBias": 5.5816,
      "divisionPrior": 1.2746,
      "evidenceWeight": 1.1468,
      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 13,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": 4.5096,
      "confidence": "Medium",
      "evidence": "2014 +2.2 (4 polls); 2018 -0.1 (5 polls); 2020 +13.7 (1 polls); 2024 +10.2 (3 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 4,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 4,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 15.719,
          "actualMargin": 13.51,
          "bias": 2.21,
          "cappedBias": 2.21,
          "weight": 0.1131
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 5,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 5,
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          "pollMargin": 11.063,
          "actualMargin": 11.179,
          "bias": -0.116,
          "cappedBias": -0.116,
          "weight": 0.4427
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        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 1,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 30.0,
          "actualMargin": 16.308,
          "bias": 13.692,
          "cappedBias": 12.0,
          "weight": 0.1011
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 3,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 19.794,
          "actualMargin": 9.61,
          "bias": 10.184,
          "cappedBias": 10.184,
          "weight": 0.4899
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      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "New Mexico",
      "abbr": "NM",
      "division": "Mountain",
      "rawBias": -1.6232,
      "divisionPrior": -0.2857,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.6811,
      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 9,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": -1.1442,
      "confidence": "Medium",
      "evidence": "2014 +0.9 (2 polls); 2018 -6.3 (3 polls); 2020 +2.1 (2 polls); 2024 -1.0 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 12.003,
          "actualMargin": 11.118,
          "bias": 0.885,
          "cappedBias": 0.885,
          "weight": 0.08
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 3,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 17.243,
          "actualMargin": 23.556,
          "bias": -6.312,
          "cappedBias": -6.312,
          "weight": 0.2143
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 8.21,
          "actualMargin": 6.105,
          "bias": 2.105,
          "cappedBias": 2.105,
          "weight": 0.1788
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
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          "bias": -0.962,
          "cappedBias": -0.962,
          "weight": 0.208
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      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "New York",
      "abbr": "NY",
      "division": "Middle Atlantic",
      "rawBias": 0.5769,
      "divisionPrior": 1.2746,
      "evidenceWeight": 1.0644,
      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 11,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 0.7422,
      "confidence": "Medium",
      "evidence": "2016 +2.1 (2 polls); 2018 -9.9 (2 polls); 2022 +0.6 (5 polls); 2024 +3.3 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 41.353,
          "actualMargin": 39.231,
          "bias": 2.122,
          "cappedBias": 2.122,
          "weight": 0.0244
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 23.538,
          "actualMargin": 33.443,
          "bias": -9.906,
          "cappedBias": -9.906,
          "weight": 0.0875
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 5,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 5,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 14.621,
          "actualMargin": 14.02,
          "bias": 0.601,
          "cappedBias": 0.601,
          "weight": 0.6325
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 21.598,
          "actualMargin": 18.32,
          "bias": 3.278,
          "cappedBias": 3.278,
          "weight": 0.32
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      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "North Carolina",
      "abbr": "NC",
      "division": "South Atlantic",
      "rawBias": 0.9699,
      "divisionPrior": 2.1393,
      "evidenceWeight": 2.05,
      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 65,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": 1.1528,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2014 +3.1 (14 polls); 2016 +4.3 (18 polls); 2020 +4.7 (25 polls); 2022 -2.5 (8 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 14,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 14,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 1.545,
          "actualMargin": -1.564,
          "bias": 3.109,
          "cappedBias": 3.109,
          "weight": 0.2
        },
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 18,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 18,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -1.397,
          "actualMargin": -5.696,
          "bias": 4.299,
          "cappedBias": 4.299,
          "weight": 0.3
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 25,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 25,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 2.929,
          "actualMargin": -1.747,
          "bias": 4.676,
          "cappedBias": 4.676,
          "weight": 0.55
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 8,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 8,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -5.725,
          "actualMargin": -3.23,
          "bias": -2.495,
          "cappedBias": -2.495,
          "weight": 1.0
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "North Dakota",
      "abbr": "ND",
      "division": "West North Central",
      "rawBias": 1.7566,
      "divisionPrior": 2.3023,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.3889,
      "raceCount": 2,
      "pollCount": 4,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 2.0073,
      "confidence": "Low",
      "evidence": "2018 +0.5 (3 polls); 2024 +10.9 (1 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 3,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -10.311,
          "actualMargin": -10.837,
          "bias": 0.526,
          "cappedBias": 0.526,
          "weight": 0.3429
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 1,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 0,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -22.0,
          "actualMargin": -32.93,
          "bias": 10.93,
          "cappedBias": 10.93,
          "weight": 0.046
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Ohio",
      "abbr": "OH",
      "division": "East North Central",
      "rawBias": 0.7424,
      "divisionPrior": 1.5223,
      "evidenceWeight": 2.174,
      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 23,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": 0.8584,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2016 +3.3 (7 polls); 2018 +0.9 (2 polls); 2022 -1.2 (7 polls); 2024 +2.6 (7 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 7,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 7,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -17.528,
          "actualMargin": -20.871,
          "bias": 3.343,
          "cappedBias": 3.343,
          "weight": 0.1403
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 7.73,
          "actualMargin": 6.846,
          "bias": 0.884,
          "cappedBias": 0.884,
          "weight": 0.35
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 7,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 7,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -7.276,
          "actualMargin": -6.11,
          "bias": -1.166,
          "cappedBias": -1.166,
          "weight": 0.9354
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 7,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 7,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -1.046,
          "actualMargin": -3.62,
          "bias": 2.574,
          "cappedBias": 2.574,
          "weight": 0.7483
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Oklahoma",
      "abbr": "OK",
      "division": "West South Central",
      "rawBias": 1.8334,
      "divisionPrior": 1.8334,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.0,
      "raceCount": 0,
      "pollCount": 0,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": 1.8334,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "No usable standard D-vs-R modern Senate race in source data; division prior only",
      "races": []
    },
    {
      "state": "Oregon",
      "abbr": "OR",
      "division": "Pacific",
      "rawBias": -0.5913,
      "divisionPrior": -0.8613,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.6518,
      "raceCount": 3,
      "pollCount": 9,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": -0.6821,
      "confidence": "Medium",
      "evidence": "2014 -1.2 (4 polls); 2016 -2.5 (2 polls); 2022 -0.3 (3 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 4,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 4,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 17.711,
          "actualMargin": 18.862,
          "bias": -1.151,
          "cappedBias": -1.151,
          "weight": 0.1131
        },
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 0,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 20.784,
          "actualMargin": 23.253,
          "bias": -2.469,
          "cappedBias": -2.469,
          "weight": 0.0488
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 3,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 14.635,
          "actualMargin": 14.91,
          "bias": -0.275,
          "cappedBias": -0.275,
          "weight": 0.4899
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Pennsylvania",
      "abbr": "PA",
      "division": "Middle Atlantic",
      "rawBias": -0.375,
      "divisionPrior": 1.2746,
      "evidenceWeight": 2.38,
      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 59,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": -0.1479,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2016 +4.4 (14 polls); 2018 +1.5 (2 polls); 2022 -4.4 (15 polls); 2024 +2.3 (28 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 14,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 14,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 2.938,
          "actualMargin": -1.432,
          "bias": 4.371,
          "cappedBias": 4.371,
          "weight": 0.3
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 14.386,
          "actualMargin": 12.87,
          "bias": 1.515,
          "cappedBias": 1.515,
          "weight": 0.28
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 15,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 15,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 0.46,
          "actualMargin": 4.9,
          "bias": -4.44,
          "cappedBias": -4.44,
          "weight": 1.0
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 28,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 28,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 2.045,
          "actualMargin": -0.22,
          "bias": 2.265,
          "cappedBias": 2.265,
          "weight": 0.8
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Rhode Island",
      "abbr": "RI",
      "division": "New England",
      "rawBias": -2.1651,
      "divisionPrior": -0.4158,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.1336,
      "raceCount": 2,
      "pollCount": 5,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": -0.9194,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "2014 +2.3 (3 polls); 2018 -2.9 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 43.61,
          "actualMargin": 41.335,
          "bias": 2.274,
          "cappedBias": 2.274,
          "weight": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 20.166,
          "actualMargin": 23.108,
          "bias": -2.942,
          "cappedBias": -2.942,
          "weight": 0.1137
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "South Carolina",
      "abbr": "SC",
      "division": "South Atlantic",
      "rawBias": 6.36,
      "divisionPrior": 2.1393,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.22,
      "raceCount": 1,
      "pollCount": 2,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": 3.6869,
      "confidence": "Low",
      "evidence": "2020 +6.4 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -3.911,
          "actualMargin": -10.27,
          "bias": 6.36,
          "cappedBias": 6.36,
          "weight": 0.22
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "South Dakota",
      "abbr": "SD",
      "division": "West North Central",
      "rawBias": 10.6972,
      "divisionPrior": 2.3023,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.2057,
      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 9,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 5.5232,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "2014 +8.6 (5 polls); 2016 +23.7 (2 polls); 2020 +14.5 (1 polls); 2022 +18.5 (1 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 5,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 5,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -12.247,
          "actualMargin": -20.86,
          "bias": 8.612,
          "cappedBias": 8.612,
          "weight": 0.0791
        },
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -19.976,
          "actualMargin": -43.656,
          "bias": 23.679,
          "cappedBias": 12.0,
          "weight": 0.0375
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 1,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -17.0,
          "actualMargin": -31.47,
          "bias": 14.47,
          "cappedBias": 12.0,
          "weight": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 1,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 0,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -25.0,
          "actualMargin": -43.48,
          "bias": 18.48,
          "cappedBias": 12.0,
          "weight": 0.0575
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Tennessee",
      "abbr": "TN",
      "division": "East South Central",
      "rawBias": 5.4282,
      "divisionPrior": 3.1474,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.459,
      "raceCount": 2,
      "pollCount": 7,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 4.4735,
      "confidence": "Low",
      "evidence": "2014 +8.2 (2 polls); 2018 +5.3 (5 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -21.826,
          "actualMargin": -30.001,
          "bias": 8.176,
          "cappedBias": 8.176,
          "weight": 0.0163
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 5,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 5,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -5.46,
          "actualMargin": -10.787,
          "bias": 5.327,
          "cappedBias": 5.327,
          "weight": 0.4427
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Texas",
      "abbr": "TX",
      "division": "West South Central",
      "rawBias": 1.0912,
      "divisionPrior": 1.8334,
      "evidenceWeight": 1.8462,
      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 21,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": 1.2179,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2014 +3.6 (2 polls); 2018 -4.3 (5 polls); 2020 +2.4 (8 polls); 2024 +4.1 (6 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -23.568,
          "actualMargin": -27.195,
          "bias": 3.627,
          "cappedBias": 3.627,
          "weight": 0.05
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 5,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 5,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -6.827,
          "actualMargin": -2.567,
          "bias": -4.26,
          "cappedBias": -4.26,
          "weight": 0.5534
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 8,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 8,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -7.194,
          "actualMargin": -9.639,
          "bias": 2.446,
          "cappedBias": 2.446,
          "weight": 0.55
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 6,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 6,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -4.383,
          "actualMargin": -8.49,
          "bias": 4.107,
          "cappedBias": 4.107,
          "weight": 0.6928
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Utah",
      "abbr": "UT",
      "division": "Mountain",
      "rawBias": 2.9064,
      "divisionPrior": -0.2857,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.0861,
      "raceCount": 2,
      "pollCount": 4,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": 0.304,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "2016 +9.2 (3 polls); 2018 -4.3 (1 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 3,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -31.85,
          "actualMargin": -41.087,
          "bias": 9.238,
          "cappedBias": 9.238,
          "weight": 0.0459
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 1,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 0,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -36.0,
          "actualMargin": -31.677,
          "bias": -4.323,
          "cappedBias": -4.323,
          "weight": 0.0402
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Vermont",
      "abbr": "VT",
      "division": "New England",
      "rawBias": -2.3934,
      "divisionPrior": -0.4158,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.092,
      "raceCount": 2,
      "pollCount": 2,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": -0.8013,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "2016 +9.4 (1 polls); 2022 -9.4 (1 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 1,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 0,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 37.0,
          "actualMargin": 27.649,
          "bias": 9.351,
          "cappedBias": 9.351,
          "weight": 0.0345
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 1,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": 31.0,
          "actualMargin": 40.44,
          "bias": -9.44,
          "cappedBias": -9.44,
          "weight": 0.0575
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Virginia",
      "abbr": "VA",
      "division": "South Atlantic",
      "rawBias": 3.5336,
      "divisionPrior": 2.1393,
      "evidenceWeight": 1.0661,
      "raceCount": 3,
      "pollCount": 12,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 3.2037,
      "confidence": "Medium",
      "evidence": "2014 +8.7 (3 polls); 2020 +5.7 (4 polls); 2024 +1.5 (5 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 3,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 9.489,
          "actualMargin": 0.812,
          "bias": 8.678,
          "cappedBias": 8.678,
          "weight": 0.1225
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "polls": 4,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 4,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 17.759,
          "actualMargin": 12.084,
          "bias": 5.675,
          "cappedBias": 5.675,
          "weight": 0.3111
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 5,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 5,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 10.414,
          "actualMargin": 8.93,
          "bias": 1.484,
          "cappedBias": 1.484,
          "weight": 0.6325
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Washington",
      "abbr": "WA",
      "division": "Pacific",
      "rawBias": -9.7212,
      "divisionPrior": -0.8613,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.6857,
      "raceCount": 2,
      "pollCount": 6,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": -6.8401,
      "confidence": "Medium",
      "evidence": "2016 -2.7 (2 polls); 2022 -11.2 (4 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 15.375,
          "actualMargin": 18.026,
          "bias": -2.651,
          "cappedBias": -2.651,
          "weight": 0.12
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 4,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 4,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 3.299,
          "actualMargin": 14.52,
          "bias": -11.221,
          "cappedBias": -11.221,
          "weight": 0.5657
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "West Virginia",
      "abbr": "WV",
      "division": "South Atlantic",
      "rawBias": 3.9731,
      "divisionPrior": 2.1393,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.4685,
      "raceCount": 2,
      "pollCount": 6,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.15,
      "prior": 3.2146,
      "confidence": "Low",
      "evidence": "2014 +7.0 (3 polls); 2018 +3.7 (3 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -20.674,
          "actualMargin": -27.653,
          "bias": 6.979,
          "cappedBias": 6.979,
          "weight": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 3,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 3,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 6.942,
          "actualMargin": 3.249,
          "bias": 3.694,
          "cappedBias": 3.694,
          "weight": 0.4287
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Wisconsin",
      "abbr": "WI",
      "division": "East North Central",
      "rawBias": -0.3473,
      "divisionPrior": 1.5223,
      "evidenceWeight": 2.2752,
      "raceCount": 4,
      "pollCount": 36,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": -0.0798,
      "confidence": "High",
      "evidence": "2016 +5.9 (6 polls); 2018 -0.8 (2 polls); 2022 -2.8 (7 polls); 2024 +0.6 (21 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "polls": 6,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 6,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 2.58,
          "actualMargin": -3.362,
          "bias": 5.942,
          "cappedBias": 5.942,
          "weight": 0.2598
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 2,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 10.055,
          "actualMargin": 10.837,
          "bias": -0.782,
          "cappedBias": -0.782,
          "weight": 0.28
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "polls": 7,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 7,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": -3.752,
          "actualMargin": -1.0,
          "bias": -2.752,
          "cappedBias": -2.752,
          "weight": 0.9354
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "polls": 21,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 21,
          "window": "21d",
          "pollMargin": 1.424,
          "actualMargin": 0.85,
          "bias": 0.574,
          "cappedBias": 0.574,
          "weight": 0.8
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state": "Wyoming",
      "abbr": "WY",
      "division": "Mountain",
      "rawBias": 10.76,
      "divisionPrior": -0.2857,
      "evidenceWeight": 0.0163,
      "raceCount": 1,
      "pollCount": 2,
      "coherenceMultiplier": 1.0,
      "prior": 0.1686,
      "confidence": "Very low",
      "evidence": "2014 +10.8 (2 polls)",
      "races": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "polls": 2,
          "pollsFinal21Days": 1,
          "window": "45d fallback",
          "pollMargin": -43.096,
          "actualMargin": -53.856,
          "bias": 10.76,
          "cappedBias": 10.76,
          "weight": 0.0163
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}